Guaranteed Cappers

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR FRIDAY, 4/26:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Friday was with the San Francisco Giants with the money-line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates listing both starting pitchers Kyle Harrison and Quinn Priester. San Francisco (12-14) had their two-game winning streak snapped in an 8-2 loss at home to the New York Mets on Wednesday. The Giants have won 9 of their last 13 games after a loss this season. They have also won 5 of their 8 games at home with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Pittsburgh (13-13) has lost two games in a row as well as eight of their last ten contests after a 7-5 loss to Milwaukee yesterday. The Pirates have lost 27 of their last 39 games after losing six or seven of their last eight games. They go back on the road after a seven-game home stand — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after playing four or more games at home. Take San Francisco with the money-line listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer is on a 16 of 21 (76%) NBA run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after their 2-0 Thursday S-W-E-E-P! Frank is on a 25 of 36 (69%) All-Sports run with featured plays — and he enjoys longer-running 31 of 45 (69%) and 84 of 130 (65%) NBA featured play runs! Now Frank continues his 46 of 61 (75%) NBA TOTALS TEAR with featured plays with tonight’s Minnesota-Phoenix O/U winner on ESPN at 10:40 PM ET! Want ONE MORE WINNER for Friday? BANK on Frank!

At 10:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (537) and the Phoenix Suns (538) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (58-26) has won three of their last four games as well as five of their last seven contests after their 105-93 loss on the road against the Timberwolves as a 3-point favorite on Tuesday. Phoenix (49-35) had won three games in a row before losing the first two games of this series. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Timberwolves are having their way getting looks against the Suns — they generated 43% of their points at the rim. Minnesota has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning two or more games in a row at home. They won Game One by 25 points — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning two games in a row by double-digits. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 105 points in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. The Timberwolves have held the Suns to 93 and 95 points in the first two games of this series — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points or less in two straight games. Phoenix has played 6 straight Overs after losing two games in a row by double-digits. The Suns have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last contest. This game is just the fourth time in the last three seasons that Phoenix they are playing a game at home with the Total set below 210 — and all 3 previous games finished Over the Total. 

FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NBA Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (537) and the Phoenix Suns (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (538) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (537) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (49-35) has lost the first two games of this series after their 105-93 loss on the road against the Timberwolves as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday. Minnesota (58-26) has won three of their last four games as well as five of their last seven contests. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix had been playing well to end the season with three straight victories. The Suns have bounced back to win 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss on the road by double-digits. They have only generated 75 and 78 shots in the first two games of this series — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to put up more than 80 shots in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after not allowing more than 100 points in their last contest. Now after playing their last five games on the road, they return home now to play for the first time since April 9th — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after playing their last four games on the road. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 35 of their last 56 home games when favored by six points or less. Minnesota only made 44.9% of their shots in Game Two — but that was also their best shooting effort in their last seven games. The Timberwolves have won and covered the point spread in both games in this series — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row while covering the point spread as a favorite in both games. And while the Suns have not scored more than 95 points in either game in this series, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. 

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix won all three games against the Timberwolves in the regular season by double-digits. And while they have lost both games in this series by 25 and 12 points, the Suns have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 opportunities to avenge two straight losses to their opponent by double-digits. 8* NBA Minnesota-Phoenix ESPN Special with the Phoenix Suns (538) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (537). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (535) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (536) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (52-32) has lost four of their last five games after their 96-93 upset loss at home to the Mavericks as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Dallas (51-33) snapped a three-game losing streak to even this series at 1-1. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles only made 36.8% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort for their entire season. Kawhi Leonard did return from injury in that game after missing nine games in a row but he was rusty — he made only 7 of his 17 shots while missing nine of his 12 jumpers including an 0-5 mark from behind the arc. With two days off, he should play better tonight as he re-establishes his rhythm. Remember, Leonard had a 51% shooting percentage with a 39% clip from behind the arc in his previous 72 playoff games resulting in almost 29 Points-Per-Game. More ball movement should achieve better shooting results for this team. Los Angeles was still in a position to win Game Two despite that dismal shooting. They outplayed the Mavericks in the other areas of the game: they had more offensive rebounds and scored more second-chance points; they made more free throws; they had fewer turnovers; they had more fast break points; they had more points in the paint and shot a better percentage at the rim. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset loss. After playing their last five games, they go back on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after playing three or more games in a row. Head coach Ty Lue needs to make an adjustment to the Mavericks playing small ball with Maxi Kleber on the court — and that could mean more playing time for P.J. Tucker who did see more action at the end of the season. Dallas may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after an upset loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a win by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win on the road by three points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after a win by six points or less. The Mavericks were red-hot down the stretch by winning 16 of 18 games before tanking the final two regular season games since their spot as the fifth seed in the Western Conference playoffs was clinched. But only one of their 16 victories during that stretch was against a top-six seed in either conference — and that upset win at home against Denver required a miracle buzzer-beating shot from Kyrie Irving to steal that game. Dallas is below .500 with a 23-27 straight-up record against teams with a winning percentage of .500 or better. 

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 opportunities to avenge a loss by three points or less including four of those last five situations. 25* NBA Western Conference Underdog of the Month with Los Angeles Clippers (535) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.